Brexit: Implications and outlook [What Think Tanks are thinking]

Uncertainty about the future relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom has contributed to turbulence on financial markets and in European politics, following the country's vote by referendum on 23 June to leave the EU. The new British Prime Minister, Teresa May, detailed some of her plans in a speech at the Conservative Party conference in October 2016, indicating that the UK would invoke the Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union by March 2017, a move needed for a member state to leave the Union. There is still lack of clarity on crucial aspects of the UK's departure, such as whether it wishes to remain part of the EU's single market or customs union, what the impact may be on EU’s and the UK's economies and how the country's Parliament may be involved in process of leaving the EU. This note offers links to recent commentaries and reports published by major international think tanks and other research centres in response to the UK referendum. More studies on issues raised by the vote can be found in a previous edition of 'What Think Tanks are thinking' in July 2016.

Brexit Literature Update 12/2016

Following a relevant request by the Committee on Constitutional Affairs, the Policy Department on Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs will be compiling, on a regular basis, a number of academic and scholarly materials related to the process of, and the negotiations on, withdrawal of the UK from the EU. Since the June referendum in the UK and its outcome, Brexit-related literature has grown significantly and it is going to expand further in the near future. Thus, this compilation is far from exhaustive; rather, it identifies some of the more useful articles, taking into account, in particular, the following elements: • Scholarly rather than a journalistic publication, • Originality and interest, • Recent publication, • Be of interest for the EU, • Constitutional or institutional relevance.

Brexit - Possible Economic Impact for the Euro Area and the EU

On 23 June 2016 the UK held a referendum on its membership in the EU. The majority of the British people voted for Britain’s exit from the EU (Brexit). The British Prime Minister announced her intentions to trigger the EU withdrawal procedure before the end of March 2017. Issues to be address pertain to the short run, when the impact of the uncertainty is key. In the longer term trade disintegration is likely to play a powerful role. Brexit is also a manifestation of discontent among EU citizens and could therefore provide an opportunity for far-reaching reforms that would make the euro stronger? This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the IMCO Committee.

EU-US negotiations on TTIP: A survey of current issues

The negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the USA aim at achieving a comprehensive trade agreement with renewed liberalisation efforts in trade, services and investments, while at the same time aiming at regulatory cooperation and rule-based trade. Since the completion of the 13th round of negotiations on TTIP in April 2016, the European Commission and the USA have been working to achieve substantial progress before the next round takes place in July 2016. As those negotiations get under way, this in-depth analysis examines progress to date and looks at the various issues that are still outstanding.

La Asociación Transatlántica de Comercio e Inversión (ATCI): El lento avance de las negociaciones

Las diez rondas de negociaciones sobre la Asociación Transatlántica de Comercio e Inversión UE-EE.UU. (ATCI) celebradas en los dos últimos años han dado pocos resultados. Desde que se iniciaron las conversaciones —que generaron muchas expectativas— en junio de 2013, los negociadores han evitado abordar contenidos reales o tratar cuestiones difíciles. Los objetivos políticos del mandato de la UE y los expresados por el Parlamento Europeo en su reciente Resolución sobre la ATCI, así como los objetivos del Congreso de los EE.UU. tal como se especifican en la Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) Act (Ley sobre la autoridad para promoción del comercio (APC)) han sido claros: todos recomiendan eliminar los aranceles y desmantelar las barreras no arancelarias para avanzar en la liberalización de los mercados transatlánticos y promover unos índices más elevados de crecimiento y creación de empleo. A principios de octubre de 2015, las Partes negociadoras presentaron por fin propuestas actualizadas sobre cómo eliminar los aranceles. También tendrán que presentar propuestas sobre el acceso a mercados de contratación pública e iniciar conversaciones sobre el nuevo Sistema de Tribunales de Inversiones (STI), como propuso la comisaria de Comercio Cecilia Malmström el 16 de septiembre de 2015. La Asociación Transpacífica (ATP), el otro gran acuerdo comercial que ha tenido ocupados a los negociadores estadounidenses (de hecho, en mayor medida que la ATCI), se acordó el 5 de octubre de 2015. Habrá que agilizar considerablemente el proceso si se quiere concluir las negociaciones de la ATCI antes de que el presidente estadounidense Barack Obama abandone el cargo, habida cuenta de que el proceso de negociación podría verse afectado con la entrada de un presidente menos favorable al comercio.

Las relaciones transatlánticas: EEUU y Canadá

La salud pública

Health and social security

ENVI Relevant Legislative Areas of the EU-US Trade and Investment Partnership Negotiations (TTIP)

This study, prepared by Policy Department A, aims to support Members of the Committee on Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI) in monitoring on-going negotiations for a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). It analyses the main differences between EU and US legislation in eight areas, namely: human medicines and medical devices, cosmetics, food and nutrition, sanitary and phyto-sanitary, nanomaterials, cloning, raw materials and energy, and motor vehicles. Existing collaboration between the EU and US, progress already achieved in the negotiations and potential future developments in these areas are also addressed.

Europeos en 2016: percepciones y expectativas, la lucha contra el terrorismo y la radicalización

La política de medio ambiente: principios generales y marco básico

COP21 and Agenda 2030

Implementing the Paris Agreement - Issues at Stake in View of the COP 22 Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh

This study summarises the developments leading to the adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015 and provides an overview of its contents. The further implementation process and the roles of the main Parties and other stakeholders are discussed, as well as related international developments and the challenges of the climate change conference in Marrakesh in November 2016. The study was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI).

Decisive step for Colombian peace agreement

The signature of the Final Peace Agreement in Colombia on 26 September 2016 brings a successful end to the negotiations between the Colombian government and the FARC guerrilla group. Negotiations between the two sides started in Havana four years ago, and they announced a final peace agreement on 24 August, and the declaration of a definitive ceasefire from 29 August 2016. This has thus raised expectations for a rapid end to the longest-running conflict in modern Latin America. Nevertheless, the peace process is far from completed: Sunday 2 October 2016 will be a decisive date in the process, when the agreement is submitted to a popular referendum. The most unpopular part of the deal, the transitional justice system, could prove decisive for the outcome. If the agreement is approved by the Colombian people, the third and most difficult phase – the implementation of the agreement – will begin, and this poses numerous uncertainties about the future. International actors have played a major role since the beginning of the process, and will continue to do so during the peace-building phase. In particular, the United Nations and some of its agencies, UNASUR, the Organisation of American States, and the European Union (which has appointed a special envoy), are involved.

The EU's new approach to funding peace and security

The link between security, peace and development is recognised by both security and development communities. However, the practical implications of this nexus still pose challenges – especially in the light of a rapidly evolving security environment. While the EU’s assistance for peace and security comes in different forms – for instance through budgetary support or under common security and defence policy – the existing rules of financing under the EU budget exclude activities aimed at enhancing cooperation with the defence sector and the military in third countries. The proposed amendment to Regulation (EU) No 230/2014 of 11 March 2014 establishing the Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace (IcSP) aims to remedy this situation by creating the conditions to allow EU budgetary support for capacitybuilding programmes in third countries aimed at training and mentoring, the provision of non-lethal equipment and assistance with infrastructure improvements, and help with strengthening the capacity of military actors in order to contribute to the achievement of peaceful and inclusive societies and sustainable development. Fifth edition. The ‘EU Legislation in Progress’ briefings are updated at key stages throughout the legislative procedure. Please note this document has been designed for on-line viewing.

La gestión de las fronteras exteriores

Internal Borders in the Schengen Area: Is Schengen Crisis-Proof?

This study, commissioned by the European Parliament’s Policy Department for Citizen’s Rights and Constitutional Affairs at the request of the LIBE Committee, analyses the Schengen area in the wake of the European ‘refugee crisis’ and other recent developments. With several Member States reintroducing temporary internal border controls over recent months, the study assesses compliance with the Schengen governance framework in this context. Despite suggestions that the end of Schengen is nigh or arguments that there is a need to get ‘back to Schengen’, the research demonstrates that Schengen is alive and well and that border controls have, at least formally, complied with the legal framework. Nonetheless, better monitoring and democratic accountability are necessary.

The Proposal for a European Border and Coast Guard: Evolution or Revolution in External Border Management?

This analysis, which critically examines the Commission proposal for the establishment of a European Border and Coast Guard, was commissioned by the European Parliament’s Policy Department for Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs at the request of the LIBE Committee. The proposal significantly reinforces Frontex’s regulatory and operational tasks and provides the Agency with an additional supervisory role. The proposal does not amend the fundamental premise of operational cooperation at the external borders, reserving executive enforcement powers to the Member States. Nonetheless, the concept of shared responsibility in the absence of shared accountability increases existing fundamental rights concerns.